REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND GIS METHODS FOR ASSESSMENT OF THE PLAGUE EPIZOOTIC ACTIVITY OF KAZAKH NATURAL PLAGUE FOCI

The plague natural foci of Kazakhstan are a complicated system of relations between the plague microbe, warm-blood host and vector. The complex approaches used for study of the processes of the plague epizooty and prognosis it. Use of computerized programs with the classic methods of study helps to process the data in time and space. For epidemiological and epizootological analysis the passport data of the strains Y. pestis isolated by Zhosaly Anti-plague Station of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 1990-2012 were processed. The Anti-plague Station carries out the epizootic study of the landscape and epizootology regions as the North Qizilqum, East Karakum, and West part of Aryskum-Dariyalyktakyr. From 1990 to 2012 there were 295 plague strains isolated, 57 % of them were isolated from rodents, and 49,3 % of them were isolated from vectors (ticks and fleas). The passport data for 1990-2011 of three mentioned above landscape and epizootology regions were processed by STATA 12 program; and the regression models of the North Qizilqum and East Karakum were created. The model shows that the plague epizooty activity has been declining by the years. The second model shows that the plague activity in the North Qizilqum has been increasing by the years. Also the passport data of the strains Y. pestis isolated in two natural plague foci of Central Asia desert plague focus as Qizilqum and Aryskum-Dariyalyktakyr natural foci were processed by ArcGIS 10. The regression analysis and modeling in ArcGIS 10 give the opportunities for carrying out of spatial and temporal characteristics of conditions of epizootic activities of the natural plague foci, for detection more possible regions where people livestock as camels can be infected with plague and for prevention of infection of people during their activities. Application of this analysis in the complex of epizootic and epidemiological analysis gives the possibility to prognosis of possible plague epidemic complications and make remote prognosis for carrying out of the prophylaxis measurements under the influences of anthropogenic transformation of the foci, social and climatic factors and can help to survey the foci and protect the population who live there. Use of the regression analysis in the epidemiological and epizootological monitoring of the plague in the natural plague foci can help to prognosis the dynamics of the plague epizooty in the foci and detect a correlation between the microbe, vector, and host of the plague

EVALUATION OF PLAGUE EPIZOOTIC CONDITION OF PREARAL-QARAQYM PLAGUE FOCUS OF KAZAKHSTAN IN SPRING AND SUMMER TIME OF 2013

In the Republic of Kazakhstan, there a re the natural plague foci. For the analysis, the passport data of plague epizooty activity in the PreAral-Qaraqym plague focus of Qyzylorda Province were collected. The data were received in the spring and summer seasons of2013. For the research of plague epizooty, the places ofstucfy were determined. The selection of places was based on the parameters as a presence of settlements, annual data of plague epizooty activity in the focus. Then the places were studied by serological and bacteriological methods; and the plague epizooty was found in some of them. During spring and summer seasons the plague strains were isolatedfrom the plague hostRhombomys opimus and plague vectors X. skrjabini, H. asiaticum, N. laeviceps, Cit. tesguorum, E. oshanini. For spatial and temporal analysis, the received positive data were processed by ArcGIS 10 program. The tasks of the analysis were definition of the plague epizooty center for plague risk zoning of the area; definition of direction of the plague epizooty for calculation of possibility of the plague epizooty increasing; calculation of plague epizooty radius for conducting of plague prophylaxis measures; definition of zones where the possibility to be infected with plague is high for population. The plague epizooty model of PreAral-Qaraqym plague focus was created, in the framework of plague epidemiological surveillance system, application the modeling in program ArcGIS 10 is useful instrument for detection of plague risk areas, and conduction of plague prophylaxis measures for protection of local population form the plague

Characteristics of cholera strains isolated in Kazakhstan

In the Republic of Kazakhstan there are three types of areas with different cholera infection risk levels for people. Within cholera epidemiological surveillance the cholera strains are annually isolated from people and the environment. In this research, we studied the cholera strains isolated in Kazakhstan for 2013-2015 and they were selected for this study. All cholera strains were locally isolatedfrom people and the environment except one toxigenic imported strain of V. cholerae 01 lnaba which had genes of ctxAB, tcpA. The study showed that there were V cholerae strains which were atypical by their agglutination abilities and sensitivity to cholera phages. It can complicate the cholera laboratory diagnostics especially the diagnostics of V. cholerae О1 and for timely recognition of cholera it is necessary to carry out the diagnostics combined with molecular and genetic methods. For the study of antibiotic sensitivity or resistance we use eight antibacterial preparations. Cholera strains isolated in Kazakhstan did not have antibiotic resistance to the studied preparations. But the cholera strain brought from Pakistan was resistant to ciprofloxacin. The lack of strong resistance of local strains to the antibacterial drugs studied is encouraging in terms of conducting aetiotropic therapy. However, the possibility of entering of antibiotic-resistant strains into Kazakhstan obliges regularly to monitor strains for their sensitivity to antibacterial drugs

ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF THE POPULATION ON SARI-DZHAS AUTONOMOUS FOCUS OF PLAGUE, KYRGYZSTAN

This work is devoted to the assessment of the vulnerability of the Sary-Jaz autonomous focus of plague by using of GIS technologies. This focus of the plague covers a very large and difficult to access territory. The annual survey and disarming of this territory is very expensive. Therefore, it is necessary to select sectors that need more attention. That why, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability of the population in various sectors. Now in the world literature there is a lot of work on the assessment of vulnerability from these or those dangers, but there is no definition of hazard, risk and vulnerability indices for the focus of plague. The paper presents the results of the determination of these indices and calculates indices for each sector of the natural focus of the plague. As a result of the work, the final map of the Index of the epidemiological vulnerability of the Sary-Jaz autonomous focus of the plague was obtained. Detail results of the assessment and the final map for the study area are given. The authors hope that the calculations and results obtained in the course of this work will find their application both for theoretical assessments of the vulnerability of various territories from plague and for practical actions to reduce vulnerability

THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SITUATION ON CHOLERA IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN IN 2011

The analysis of registered cholera cases that occurred during 1993-2008 showed that all epidemic cases of cholera in Kazakhstan were imported. The toxigenic cholera microbes were isolated from the water reservoirs which started in the neighbor country. The spatial distribution of non-toxic cholera vibrio has the regional features. The climatic and anthropogenic factors affect the distribution of the cholera vibrio in the Kazakhstan. The results of the analysis show that the complex approach has to be used for cholera epidemiological monitoring